Some of you may have seen me on the TV during Monday's news saying how August flooding has become a bit of a feature of our annual weather cycle and that we can expect more this year.
From 1990 through to 2005 we had a run of generally drier than average Augusts, with the exception of a few years. It was summer 2003 when we broke our temperature record with 33C (91F) recorded at Greycrook in the Borders. A change came in 2005 and since then more typical August weather has consisted of spells of heavy rain and flooding.
If you look at the last few years the cycle has consisted of drier and milder springs followed by wetter summers, drier autumns and colder and snowier winters. This year has followed this pattern so far, although I am not suggesting at this stage that winter will be another big freeze, although some are hinting at it.
This years August floods started at the weekend over the north of Scotland around Inverness-shire, Moray and Aberdeenshire, although over the next few days the heaviest rain will be across more central and western areas. There is likely to be localised flooding in central and south-western parts of the country, although central areas seem more at risk due to the addition of the weekend rainfall in these areas.
Some areas could see a months worth of rain during Wednesday and Thursday with rainfall totals expected to peak over 100mm (4 inches) in places. The heaviest of the rain will fall over the higher ground, more especially the mountains of western Argyll.
The worst of the rain will be during Wednesday before it starts to ease away on Thursday. Over the next few days the far north will escape with mostly dry and bright weather - the likes of Caithness, Orkney and Shetland.
For the rest of the week and throughout the weekend the weather is set to stay unsettled with further bands of rain crossing the country with the wettest areas always being the west and the north-west, where it will also be windy at times too.
So over the coming days, and for the rest of the week, you can forget summer and just prepare for autumn, although I dare say summer will reappear again at some point in the autumn!
